North County San Diego Market Update

A slower market sounds like it should mean more choices and lower prices. But real estate doesn’t always move that neatly. The latest San Diego County numbers show fewer sales alongside fewer detached homes for sale—and that combination deserves a closer look before you decide to buy, sell or wait.

According to the Greater San Diego Association of REALTORS® September report, detached-home inventory was down 12.9% compared with September last year. Condo and townhome inventory moved in the opposite direction, increasing 5.8%. That distinction matters when you’re comparing a house in San Elijo Hills with a townhome in San Marcos or a condo in Carlsbad. 

Buyer activity softened across both categories. Accepted offers were down 16.8% for detached homes and 14.4% for attached homes compared with a year earlier. Yet the county’s detached median sale price reached $1,079,000, up 5.8% year over year, while the attached median was essentially flat at $670,000. The detached median was also below August’s $1,115,000. Prices can be higher than last year and lower than last month at the same time.

Mortgage rates add another layer. Freddie Mac’s October 8 report put the national average 30-year fixed rate at 7.40%, up from 7.28% the previous week. Your actual quote may differ, but that weekly increase is a good reason to revisit your numbers with your lender before making an offer. This is the highest it has been in three years! 

For sellers, my advice is to make the value clear from the beginning. Buyers are weighing the payment, the condition and the work they might need to do after closing. Remove the “yeah-buts” wherever you reasonably can: worn paint, distracting clutter, unfinished repairs or photos that don’t show the home well. Then price against the homes your buyer can choose today. Leaving room for negotiation can put you in competition with better homes at the same price.

For buyers, take a thoughtful approach to each opportunity. A longer time on market is a reason to investigate the price history, condition and competing listings. It doesn’t automatically tell you how much a seller will negotiate. Compare the full cost of ownership, including HOA dues, insurance and potential repairs, and make sure the payment works without depending on a future refinance.

In San Marcos, San Elijo Hills and Carlsbad, the most useful comparison is the one closest to your home, property type and price range. A county median can’t account for your floor plan, backyard privacy, upgrades or the competing listing around the corner.

Thinking about a move? Reach out. I’d love to help you look at the relevant numbers and build a plan that fits your timing and goals.

Stephanie Cowan | The Cowan Team | Compass
DRE# 01912040